Thursday, March 25, 2010

Heading for a stalemate that could last till Songkran

Bangkok Post 25/03/2010
Picture: PM Abhisit Vejjajiva reacts during yesterday’s meeting in Parliament, which the opposition Puea Thai Party boycotted.

With both the red shirt protesters and government proclaiming they are going in the right direction, an extended stalemate that could last close to the Songkran holidays is becoming a likely scenario.

PM Abhisit Vejjajiva reacts during yesterday’s meeting in Parliament, which the opposition Puea Thai Party boycotted. With the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) keeping the protest peaceful and orderly, and the government holding its stance of not dissolving the House or cracking down forcefully on the demonstrators, the confrontation simply has to carry on.

Although the "Three Buddies" leaders of the red shirts may have wanted to wrap up the protest within a week as they initially declared, they had no choice but to keep the show going because the real commander of the red shirt movement, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is still holding on to his dream. Thaksin remains as committed as ever to his aspiration of returning to power, claiming back all his interests and toppling the amataya who, as he tells the protesters every day, are the real liability of the country. For Thaksin, the bureaucratic elite are holding back Thailand from opening up to new things because that could affect its superior position which allows it to be above everyone and "suck everything" from ordinary citizens to enrich itself and its network.

This desire of Thaksin means the Three Buddies will have to keep coming up with catchy, new tactics rousing enough to hook their supporters - the blood campaign, the tour around Bangkok, or punchy new topics of assault by the opposite side - as well as maintain order among the crowd.

For now, the government is confident it still has a hold on the running of the country even if the protest drags on further. The pact between the Democrat Party, its coalition partners and the military remains trustworthy. Chiefly, all members of Parliament whether they are with the government or the opposition, do not want to lose their status. Even though they believe they have a chance to return in the next election, none would like to take the chance unless absolutely necessary.

This coming Saturday will be another big day for the red shirts. They promise that the tour of Bangkok to win over the support of city people will be bigger than last week's.

Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, a political scientist from Chulalongkorn University, said although he supports the People's Alliance for Democracy, he believes that both the red shirts and the government are correct in adhering to non-violence and exercising tolerance for the extended confrontation. He said that although democracy is a system in which legitimacy and efficiency are antithetical, if we want to increase efficiency, we will have to reduce the level of public participation and access to decision-making, both of which constitute legitimacy.

As the red shirts cannot force the government to meet their demand to dissolve the House, it has to bear the costs, both financial and labour, of prolonging the demonstration.

By resisting the demand of the red shirts, the government itself has to bear the cost of maintaining public law and order as well as the negative perception of its inability to govern.

After more than a week of camping out in the streets, the red shirts have at least succeeded in raising awareness about inequality, injustice and the practice of double standards which do exist in Thailand and are thus combustible topics, especially among the grassroots who have to contend with them in their everyday lives. It is undeniable, however, that the red shirts' legitimacy would increase by leaps and bounds if they could manifest clearly that they are not doing everything for Thaksin who, after all, fits the definition of the amataya more than that of the downtrodden.

The red shirts are likely to match some of the precedents set by the yellow shirts of the PAD, who set a record of protesting for 193 days. Although the yellow shirts did not succeed in forcing the Samak Sundaravej government to resign or dissolve the House, the movement did prevent that government from amending the Constitution.

Ironically, the only upper hand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has at this moment is from Thaksin's own oversight. The former PM's ambiguous goal, which many believe is further than a House dissolution, his intention of toppling the "amat" or the "sacred supporting structure" which he himself claims to love, does not help clarify his final cause. To capitalise on this advantage, Mr Abhisit should seize the moment and show his full leadership capabilities. He should leave the military-controlled 11st Infantry Regiment and let everyone see that he does not need the army to prop him up. He must show that he can call on every unit and agency to come together for the administration of the country.

Nattaya Chetchotiros is Assistant News Editor, Bangkok Post and former President of the Thai Journalists Association.

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