H1N1 Reality Far Lower than Expectations, says British Medical Journal

VOA News 17/01/2010

The British Medical Journal is taking a hard look at H1N1, examining why the flu strain did not become the huge epidemic that many feared it would.

The World Health Organization says the latest estimate indicates 13,000 people around the world have died from H1N1. It says it expects that number to be much larger when the final estimate is released in the coming months. In comparison, the seasonal flu kills about 36,000 people each year in the United States.

BMJ deputy editor Tony Delamothe says, “I think you’re right to say everybody was concerned about the potential for H1N1, but from the vantage point of early January 2010, at least in the U.K., it doesn’t look as if it’s any worse than an average bout of flu,’ he says.

He says after a spike of H1N1 cases in mid-2009 in Britain, reports of flu cases remained steady and then began to decline.

Over 360 deaths from the disease have been reported, but Delamothe says, “Really, flu kills people every year. And it’s really hard to know whether that’s more than an average year for flu mortality.”

Did early warnings and preparedness help?

WHO: H1N1 Influenza Pandemic to Last Another Year

VOA News 29/12/2009

The director-general of the World Health Organization, Margaret Chan, predicts the H1N1 swine flu virus is likely to continue circulating around the world for another year. She warns nations must remain vigilant because the H1N1 virus could mutate into a more dangerous form.

Chan says impressive progress has been made in areas such as treatment for HIV/AIDS, in the large number of lives saved among children under five and in significant cuts in deaths from malaria and measles.

But, she warns this progress is fragile. She says the momentum for health development could come to a grinding halt because of problems stemming from the food and financial crises, the changing climate and the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

"Just imagine, a severe pandemic coming at such a fragile time in a world where there are many people suffering from chronic diseases like heart disease, lung disease, including asthma, cancers, with many more people suffering from HIV, obesity and the list goes on," she said.

The World Health Organization reports H1N1 has spread to more than 200 countries, with nearly 12,000 laboratory confirmed deaths. Chan says it is likely this death toll is greatly underestimated. She says it probably will take about two years after the pandemic has ended for the true figure to be established.