Despite all the known disadvantages of a coup and the certainty that another unlawful usurpation of power would be roundly condemned everywhere, there are, regrettably, still elements in our military establishment who believe the army is the cure for our worst political crisis.
The coup rumours that swept across Bangkok last week were largely fuelled by the unannounced appearance of a dozen or rmore armoured personnel carriers on the city’s streets, the unusual nationwide “show of force” by army soldiers in support of Army Commander-in-Chief Gen Anupong Paojinda -- and by red-shirt leaders
Despite strong denials by the army chief himself, the rumour refuses to go away and remains a subject of topical debate.
Is the rumour founded? Or is it completely baseless?
Prominent academic Chai-anan Samudvanich, a member of the Royal Academy, believes he has the answer.
Writing in his column in The Manager newspaper and website yesterday, Mr Chai-anan said that he had sought the opinions of a veteran political analyst whose views were regularly sought by politicians of different colours and shades.
According to the analyst, the idea of a coup came from four sources:
- First, the “old soldiers who never die”. These retired soldiers, whom he did not identify, are unhappy with the current top brass for their deemed failure to deal with the criticism made against them.
- Second, the current top brass and their predecessors who have turned politician, and who are worried that they may be exposed for their alleged involvement in the attempt on the life of media proprietor and political loudmouth Sondhi Limthongkul.
- Third, supporters of deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who have been trying to woo some military men to stage a coup.
- And, lastly, young army officers who are staunchly royalist and who are disturbed by the brazen challenge to the army chief’s authority which, in their view, does not only hurt the army chief’s reputation but also the honour of the army as an institution.
Mr Chai-anan said the army believes that a dissolution and general election would usher in a new government but would not end the political impasse, and the country would lose any opportunity to compete with other countries in the region.
A coup, if it does take place, would not only change the political rules of the game, but would allow the army to make adjustments and allow a strong leader to the reins.
In such a scenario, Mr Chai-anan expressed grave concern and predicted that the situation would turn violent.
The red shirts, meanwhile, have been trumpeting the possibility of a coup some time around the end of this month or early March, when Gen Anupong will be overseas and his shoes will be temporarily filled by Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, the army chief-of-staff who has been very vocal in his criticism of Thaksin and his supporters
A red-shirt leader, Arisman Pongruangrong, was reported to have urged the red-shirts to descend on Bangkok during this period, and that each was told to carry a one-litre container of petrol, without specifying its purpose.
Although no one seems to have the an answer to the political impasse which is acceptable to all parties in the conflict, a military dictatorship is not the solution either.
Worse still, this primitive method of settling differences would only plunge the country deeper into the politiical abyss -- a hole it would take many years to emerge from.
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