To many observers, a military coup still looms on the horizon, and the question tilts toward when it would happen rather than if it would occur.They believe the military was about to stage a coup last Friday but, for unknown reasons, decided to walk away from it at the last minute.
The timing was tantalizing. "Then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was on his way to Switzerland, while General Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, was making a trip to the South," one source said.
Activities and comments coming from the the red-shirt movement helped fuel coup speculation. Natthawut Saikua, one of their leaders, kept warning that the public should keep an eye on the period between February 4 and 14 when Army Chief Gen Anupong will make an overseas trip. He said that within that 10-day period a military coup could take place.
The red shirts are particularly wary of Gen Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the deputy Army chief who has become a focus of serious speculation. Despite his denials last week, Prayuth has remained hounded by rumours that a coup leader has been designated, with preparatory measures ready to be introduced before, during and after the coup.
"If the coup were to happen, the National United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship will create an uprising to ward off the coup," he said.
Giving rise to this talk is the question how Thailand will cope with the spectre of bitter conflict and violence in the run-up to the Supreme Court's ruling on the Bt76 billion asset seizure case against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on February 26. Thaksin is expected to fight to his death to protect his last fortune.
In September 2006, the military rolled out the tanks to remove Thak-sin and to prevent clashes between the Yellow Shirt protesters and Thaksin's supporters. The military was said to be far from enjoying unity then, almost shooting at each other.
This time around, the military is said to be firmly united around the brainy Gen Prayuth, the new Army chief-designated. Proclaimed confidence in Prayuth has to do with the delicate consequences linked to the ruling on Thaksin's asset seizure case, and a belief that the Abhisit government is no longer in total charge of the situation, particularly with a desperate Thaksin on the loose.
Last Monday His Majesty the King granted an audience for new judges and called on them to exercise their duty with bravery, righteousness and justice. This followed rumours of alleged attempts to lobby the Su-preme Court on the asset seizure case.
Thaksin has completely lost his support from the military, as seen by last week's gatherings of mid-level commanders and their troops to demonstrate unequivocal backing for Army chief Gen Anupong.
Virtually all the mid-level military commanders, including rangers from Pak Thongchai, Nakhon Ratchasima, have signalled that they would support Gen Anupong and boycott Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdiphol, one of the outspoken leaders of the Thaksin's red shirts. Maj Gen Khattiya has made veiled threats against Anupong, members of the Asset Examination Committee and judges involved in the asset seizure case.
A desperate Thaksin may resort to a red shirt uprising to create social upheaval to the extent that His Majesty the King is obliged to intervene for a truce. He also might launch last-minute lobbying efforts targetting the Supreme Court.
In addition to that, Thaksin could try to embarrass Thailand by taking the asset seizure case to the World Court. He claimed people everywhere knew that his family had been rich before he entered politics.
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