Army determined to prevent bloodshed and acop

The Nation 29/1/009
As the political turbulence bubbles with the red shirts' threat to oust the government, Army chief General Anupong Paochinda has stepped in to pour cold water on the rival camps. Ads by Google

While Anupong's remarks appeared to be the usual pledge not to stage a coup, he did make a significant point by saying "I am confident there will be no coup because I will not allow the situation to reach that point [to warrant military intervention]".

Thailand has experienced a number of military interventions. Before each coup in the past, top military leaders would echo one another vowing not to grab power. Then soldiers would march out of their barracks to take over the seat of government.

Unlike past commanders, Anupong has reinforced his no-coup mantra with a firm commitment to deny himself a pretext to seize power.

When General Sonthi Boonyaratglin was the dark horse who became Army chief in 2005, he was a low-key soldier harbouring no political ambitions. But the fractious politics between then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his yellow-shirt opponents swept him into the centre of the power struggle.

The 2006 coup took place before a backdrop of unprecedented turmoil. Sonthi might have had good reason to clean the political slate in order to bring about a fresh start.

But mistakes were made, often despite the best of intentions. The power seizure did not end animosity but may have deepened it. Key players opted to settle old scores rather than overcome the polarisation.

The yellow shirts continue to crusade against what they see as the evils of Thaksin. The former PM has insisted, in turn, on flaunting his popularity even though his leadership brought about social divisions of a kind unseen in Thai history.

Thaksin's army of red shirts have fought with no holds barred to pave the way for him to come back.

As rival camps gear up for a showdown next year, the military has become a wild card which could either be a stabilising force - or a weight to tip the political equation.

Anupong has made it clear he sees his job as a stabiliser. He will neither tolerate politically-motivated violence nor let the situation deteriorate into bloodshed in the streets.

Reading his message between the lines, the military will likely apply pre-emptive pressure, in whatever form it takes to do the job short of power seizure, to prevent a repeat of the 2006 coup.

Anupong's message is particularly noteworthy when coupled with the New Year remarks by chief royal adviser General Prem Tinsulanonda.

Prem reminded the top brass they are duty-bound to ensure His Majesty's happiness. The King said in his birthday speech that his happiness hinges on the prosperity, security and normalcy in the country.

In light of the polarisation, normalcy is the operative word in the royal speech. Prem and Anupong envision the military role as a key to rein in political animosity.

How the military leaders will go about their job remains a matter for speculation. In the 1980s, the military once successfully played a stabilising role to steer the country out of half-baked democracy.

In light of the military determination to safeguard normalcy, Thaksin and allies such as Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Panlop Pinmanee, Weng Tojirakarn and Khattiya Sawasdipol, ought to rethink their strategy to grab power by mobilising the red shirts to drive out the government.

The message is loud and clear - fight within the political system. Thaksin, the red shirts, the yellow shirts and parties concerned should have realised by now that almost five years of political conflict have got us nowhere