WHERE Thailand's political prospects between now and February 26 are concerned, I have become something between a doom merchant and a we-can-tango-our-way-out-of-this optimist. This way, I'm not losing too much sleep, while staying firmly on my feet. Yes, things could go very wrong, but that is shamelessly assuming that we have been on the right track to begin with.
This much we know: Thaksin Shinawatra has now become far more desperate than ever. Banharn Silapa-Archa is upping the ante in the purported charter showdown with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. The opposition Pheu Thai Party is almost ready to submit a no-confidence motion against the government, and once the motion reaches Parliament, Abhisit will lose his House dissolution trump card that could keep disgruntled allies in line.
The red shirts have been weakened, but desperation can make them dangerous and unpredictable. As for the military, we only see uneasy calm.
Last but not least, the Supreme Court will certainly hand down its ruling on Thaksin's assets case on February 26. Nothing short of a real upheaval can change the schedule.
So, what's next? Some may see all the ingredients for a disaster, but others may hold out hope that those ingredients may cancel one another out.
"You have to evaluate the situation day by day," yellow-shirt and New Politics Party leader Sondhi Limthongkul has said, and I couldn't agree more.
Here, though, are some possible scenarios formulated from our newsroom's knowledge, speculation, hopes and fears.
A Fairy Tale: In this scenario, we wake up on February 27 and the foremost thing on our mind is how to plan our Saturday so as not to miss an early English Premier League kick-off. In other words, we have sleepwalked through a surprisingly lukewarm assets ruling unscathed and, finally, whatever the verdict is, it is treated as a fait accompli and everybody decides life must go on.
Chances of this happening are 15 per cent, or less. It requires Abhisit and Banharn to rebuild mutual trust that has been shaky from the beginning, and it means rumours that Banharn and Thaksin had re-established solid connections were not true. The red shirts must also be subdued, or neutralised, or starved of financial supplies.
PG 13: Amid tumultuous red-shirt protests, Banharn's open revolt, and Newin Chidchob's failure to guarantee the government his support, Abhisit decides to dissolve Parliament before he is "trapped" by a no-confidence motion. He leads a caretaker government whose life span is long enough to oversee the final legal conclusion to Thaksin's assets controversy. Once the court issues its verdict, the political landscape can be realigned again, depending on who wins and loses in the assets case.
Chances of this happening are 20 per cent, and may soon be rising.
Thriller: The red shirts go berserk ahead of the court ruling. Violence erupts. The military steps in - and this is the crucial juncture. If it's a pro-Thaksin military intervention, things could degenerate fast into an ultimate horror movie. But this is not to say that an anti-Thaksin coup won't have far-reaching consequences.
Chances of a coup: Less than 10 per cent. Abhisit has found it considerably easier than his two immediate predecessors to get the armed forces' support in dealing with street protests. But the fact that he seems assured of high-level military backing could also mean that a pro-Thaksin coup attempt would have to be launched by lower-ranking officers - and thus could turn very bloody.
Sequel to the Fairy Tale: Barring sporadic red-shirt protests, nothing serious happens between now and February 26. However, all hell breaks loose after the court orders that Thaksin's assets be seized, with his followers creating street turmoil, the opposition submitting a belated no-confidence motion, and Banharn announcing that his party will vote against the government.
Chances of this happening are 15 per cent. They are not high for the obvious reason that once the court delivers its verdict, it will be too late to pull off any effective parliamentary or non-parliamentary ploys.
To put ourselves in Thaksin's shoes, a strategic, pre-emptive campaign makes much more sense than a vengeful, post-verdict one that would hardly change anything.
There you go. More scenarios are possible. The court verdict theoretically could go either way. There's also the possibility that the ruling will seize part of the assets and unfreeze other parts. And some unknown factors may play bigger roles than we think - like Thaksin's financial standing at the moment.
To sum it up, on February 27, we could wake up from a nightmare, or plunge straight into one, or, worse, not get up at all.
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