Last week in this column I all but ruled out the possibility of a Banharn-Newin defection from the Democrat-led coalition. After our editorial department's latest re-evaluation of the situation, we still believe they wouldn't dare. However, theoretically speaking, when the Bt76 billion frozen stake of Thaksin Shinawatra comes into play, it's "now or never" if such a betrayal is to take place.
This defection theory is based on two major factors: an imminent censure motion by the Pheu Thai Party which will constitutionally nullify Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's House dissolution trump card, and the Thaksin "judgement day" which falls on February 26.
What does that mean? It means Thaksin has until the second week or so of February to overthrow the Abhisit government and hope that such a political upheaval could deter the supposedly independent judiciary, which is poised to rule on the assets case.
It won't be easy to stir up street violence or sponsor a coup or both. An easier way is to buy off Banharn Silapa-Archa and Newin Chidchob, the de facto leaders of the Chart Thai Pattana and Bhum Jai Thai parties respectively. The two key allies of Abhisit could be "bribed" to stab him in the back at the censure.
If the no-confidence motion wins the majority support of the House of Representatives, thanks to a Banharn-Newin defection, then the Pheu Thai Party can form a government immediately. Once the motion is submitted, Abhisit will have his hands tied, because the Constitution prohibits a House dissolution when a censure motion is pending.
If Abhisit wants to dissolve the House to pre-empt such a betrayal, he will have to do it now, or before a censure motion is submitted. If he opts to face the no-confidence debate, the bargaining power of Banharn and Newin will rise dramatically.
Problem is, most, if not all, of that is theory. Rumours about Banharn hooking up with Thaksin have intensified lately but planning a defection would put the Chart Thai Pattana Party on a path as dangerous as anyone's. Newin is an even bigger doubt, especially after he actively helped defuse a red-shirt resurgence in December by organising the talk-of-the-town light-and-sound event to celebrate His Majesty the King's birthday.
On one hand, Abhisit wouldn't want to be seen as a paranoid man so willing to sever ties with the only key allies he has. On the other hand, how much can he trust these two guys?
It is believed this dilemma more or less surfaced during Abhisit's unexpected meeting with Privy Council head Prem Tinsulanonda on Wednesday evening. Both men reportedly discussed a House dissolution, although the meeting ended with Prem encouraging Abhisit to carry on.
Newin and Banharn have their own dilemma, obviously. How safe is it to go back and bet on the same old horse that they had backed to their own detriment? And for this "defection" to really bear fruit, it must yield some kind of a legal victory for Thaksin in the assets case. There is no guarantee he will get that, even if the Abhisit administration crumbled tomorrow.
As Thailand rolls toward February 26, nobody can be sure of anything. Only a few days ago, it was an unlikely scenario for Abhisit to dissolve the House to "escape" the imminent censure motion and remain an acting leader long enough to oversee the conclusion of the assets case. That scenario might still be unlikely, but it's no longer implausible.
One thing is certain: Mistrust will prevail and anxiety will peak. Not that we aren't extremely distrustful and anxious already.
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