THERE WAS no decent interval for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva over the long weekend. He managed to seek solace from nature at a resort in Phang-Nga after a turbulent year including two close shaves with death at the hands of red-shirt thugs. Gutter politics continues, all the same.
This year promises to be more chaotic, if not a real threat to Abhisit. Fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra has already given a signal to his fighting force in the street and the House to go all out and topple the Democrat-led government by all means, not excluding violence. The date for Thaksin's final push has yet to be decided. There is a range of opinions among his minions and troops, who comprise red shirts and a combined force of retired military officers and rangers who serve as a militia commanded by a rogue junior Army general.
The bark has been loud, as if a bloodbath seems inevitable. The warning for the government has been unequivocal that it must be ousted by protest rallies combined with pressure inside the House - the dirty game inherent in Thai gutter politics.
The Thaksin threat will be dealt with through a conventional response. In a way, the government's complacency could be that it wants Thaksin to throw what he has, violence or otherwise, so that the government has full justification to do away with such a destabilising menace.
That means a high possibility of confrontation between Thaksin's supporters and peacekeeping troops, if it comes to an emergency decree to contain mob violence similar to that of last April.
A lot of people are resigned to the fact that if confrontation and bloodletting cannot be avoided, so be it - so that all the trouble might be cleared up once and for all. That's a high price to pay, but is it better than prolonged uncertainty and endless trouble caused by Thaksin and his cronies.
The business sector has urged Abhisit to be decisive and do whatever is necessary so that all matters can be settled and we can move ahead instead of being at a stalemate, with businesses not knowing what to do while the country's direction and prospects remain murky.
The people also believe that things cannot go on like this forever. If Thaksin continues to harass the country through hate campaigns and periodic threats of mayhem, confidence will be lost. Major nations with business interests here could come to the conclusion that we are moving towards the status of a failed state.
The Thaksin factor, despite its potential for trouble, is not serious enough to cause a change of government. During his holiday, Abhisit heard demands and a thinly-veiled ultimatum from coalition partners that he must agree with them on amending six articles in the Constitution.
Failing which, what could happen? Those self-serving, greedy and inherently corrupt coalition partners made it clear that if Abhisit refuses to comply, they intend to switch camps and rejoin the Thaksin faction. They don't care about being branded as traitors or back-stabbers. It's their true colour and nature.
Now we see how vicious and despicable our gutter politics can be. At least two coalition parties have come up with these demands at the same time. Those political lowlifes have schemed together to pressure Abhisit. Meet their demand in exchange for continued support, or else they will join Thaksin, who has increasingly limited places of refuge.
History shows that the opposition factor has never been successful in ousting governments. Erosion of coalitions and camp switching serve as the key factors in causing the collapse of fragile governments. Nothing to do with political ideology or conflict over public interest. It's pure greed and corruption-driven conflict.
The coalition partners double-crossed Thaksin to seek bigger spoils under the Democrat leadership. They have got quite enough of what they want. These snakes are dangerous, truly fitting their nature.
A bluff or otherwise, Abhisit should be ready to go for broke. If the worst comes to the worst, he can dismiss the coalition partners who gave him the ultimatum, and become a minority government. Put all good people with public acceptance in the Cabinet. Parliament will resume its session later this month.
Until a no-confidence debate in February, Abhisit has time until a House dissolution and general election - with full power to use all state mechanisms to tell the people the evil of gutter politics professed by despicable ex-partners. If he is sincere, he can make a new mission statement, level with the people, plead for votes while showing he can take charge as leader of a majority government. If the public fails to sympathise with him, so be it. First, he must have the courage to choose that path.
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