Privy Councillor Surayud Chulanont's strong, abrupt and unequivocal reaction to news reports that he would be ready to answer any call from Thaksin Shinawatra if the latter made the effort first suggests that the door to negotiation, mediation or reconciliation is now closed.
(Picture: Gen Prem Tinsulanonda).
On a more personal level, it is sad that national politics has affected the relationship between myself (a reporter on the military beat) and Gen Surayud, a former army chief whom I respect. It is notable that this deeply divided politics is polarising people in every circle, forcing them to choose sides.
It is inevitable that journalists feel the heat. When we criticise Thaksin Shinawatra, we are viewed as wearing yellow. As soon as we criticise the other faction, we are pushed into the red camp. I myself insist that journalists must be "colourless" and stand firmly on neutral ground. Which means we are ambushed by both the yellow and red camps. We must bear the criticism in order to transcend this colour-coded polarisation.
The cold gesture from Gen Surayud and the desperation of Thaksin has led many analysts to predict that the political conflict will escalate this year to the point that a "civil war" may be possible.
Of course nobody wants blood spilled - but is there a way to avoid it? Since the door to negotiation (and hopefully, reconciliation) has been shut, there is only confrontation looming ahead. The tension must be viewed within the context that a throng of old, hawkish soldiers has lined up and moved into the Thaksin and Puea Thai camp.
(Picture Gen Surayud Chulanont).
These include Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Gen Panlop Pinmanee, Lt Gen Pirat Sawamiwat and Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdiphol. They are backed by a group of the alumni of Class 7 and Class 8 of Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy, soldiers from the Special Forces unit, old subordinates of Gen Chavalit in Class 9 of the armed forces preparatory school and the alumni of Thaksin's Class 10 fellows.
On the other side is the army under the leadership of Anupong Paojinda with assistance from his right-hand man Prayuth Chan-ocha, billed as the next army commander come September. These soldiers are ready to battle both Thaksin's followers and old soldiers in Puea Thai, to shore up the government led by the Democrat Party so that it can stay in power as long as possible - at least long enough to see Gen Prayuth take up the army's top post later this year.
(Picture: Gen Anupong Paojinda).
In a sense, the escalation of the political conflict will become a war between military men, between those currently in position and those who have retired. It can become a war between the alumni of Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy (Jor Por Ror) and the armed forces preparatory school (Tor Thor).
Gen Anupong once gave an interview rebuking old soldiers who enter politics upon retiring from the armed forces.
"I do not agree with old soldiers who don't know when to quit. Of those who have entered politics, I don't see any who have excelled."
It is almost inevitable that the tension and tendency for the political conflict to descend into armed confrontation has raised the old fear that the military might take advantage of the situation and stage another coup. This fear remains even though Gen Anupong has insisted time and again that there will be no coup. "And there will be no blood," the army chief insists.
(Picutre Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha.)
Obviously, the denial harks back to the "no coup" comment made by former coup chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin before he staged it in 2006. No one will say they are going to stage a coup before actually doing it, will they?
The speculation intensified when former National Security Council chief Prasong Soonsiri gave an interview saying that a coup would be possible especially if the government is unable to control chaos. Sqn Ldr Prasong gave his view on the day he paid Prem Tinsulanonda a courtesy call on the occasion of the new year. On that day, the president of the Privy Council donned military attire to meet military leaders. His choice of dress also generated a round of speculation - with some believing Gen Prem did it to welcome a group of cavalry men due to meet him that day.
Gen Prem himself hails from a cavalry unit. Most of all, however, people tried to link this moment to the last time Gen Prem was seen wearing a military uniform in public, which was when he conducted a round of talks to military cadets in July and August 2006 telling them they were here to serve the nation and King - before the Sept 19, 2006 coup.
"There is nothing to interpret," insists Admiral Phajun Tamprateep, personal secretary to Gen Prem. "Gen Prem is a soldier and he loves the military profession. He likes to wear the uniform on occasion and he does so when he deems it appropriate."
A source close to the president of the Privy Council revealed that Gen Prem is concerned about the possibility that civil war could break out among Thais. He has urged the army to help take care of the country.
Sources in the army seem to be in agreement that as long as Gen Anupong remains army chief, there will be no coup. A critical period will be the time when his term is about to end. The coming retirement may embolden the man to take more risks, according to sources.
The red camp, bolstered by retired soldiers-turned-politicians, is getting ready for battle.
Things may be different if Gen Prayuth gets to become the new army commander. Gen Prayuth has always stood on the opposite side of former PM Thaksin. He is also known as an anti-red general. Besides, he is generally viewed as being more decisive and daring than Gen Anupong.
At present, Gen Anupong has already assigned Gen Prayuth to take care of many matters on his behalf, including keeping order and controlling political protests.
Gen Prayuth also serves as deputy director of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc).
Even so, a coup will not be an answer or end to all the political conflicts. It will in deed spawn more resistance from anti-coup groups and the red shirts.
This time, the old soldiers in the red camp will make sure that they are more ready to engage the army in guerrilla warfare than when the red shirts caused a fruitless melee during the Songkran riots last year.
A coup would only lead to blood being spilled.
A House dissolution or a new election will not give the warring factions closure, either. If the Puea Thai Party wins, the yellow camp will protest. If the Democrat Party wins, Thaksin and his red shirt followers will resume their movement.
The move to amend the constitution looks set to create more conflict as the yellow shirts do not want the charter to be touched while the red side wants it abolished altogether and replaced with the 1997 version.
Looking ahead, there seems to be no way out for Thai politics.
Wassana Nanuam reports on military affairs for the Bangkok Post.
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1 comment:
Look like all Gen. are not happy and well prepared themselves for the worse to come.
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